Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
