Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
